AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter 2023.  

Australia has returned to a more normal period of rainfall following a very wet 12 months due to La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events influencing the Australian climate.

Autumn saw warmer than average temperatures for much of the southern and central parts of the country and this trend is expected to continue. Climate models anticipate development of El Niño conditions during winter, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently at El Niño Watch status.

Most of Australia is likely to experience below median rainfall for the winter period and maximum temperatures are likely or very likely to be above median for most of the country. The combination of reduced rainfall and above average temperatures and evaporation results in outlooks for drier than average root zone soil moisture by late winter for much of the country.

Much of Central Australia is showing above normal fire potential for this outlook due to reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and higher fuel loads, including of the invasive Buffel Grass. Parts of NSW also have above normal fire potential driven by the risk of frost curing of high grass fuel loads.

In parts of the Great Dividing Range fuels remain reduced from the 2019-20 fire season and these areas are predicted to continue to provide below normal fire potential

While most of Australia shows normal fire potential during this outlook period, anyone living and working in these areas needs to be vigilant. Destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia.

AFAC bushfire specialist Dr Simon Heemstra said: ‘In the June to August period we see the diversity of bushfire potential across Australia. Northern and central Australia are coming into the dry season with some areas having above normal fire potential, in contrast to cooler conditions in the southern parts of the country.

Cool conditions can still pose fire risk. Recent wet conditions have increased grassland fuels in the landscape, and fire authorities are monitoring frost curing that can occur through winter months which can dry out vegetation and increase flammability, both in this season and as we move into spring.

Fire potential can vary greatly, even at the smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment takes into account different land use types and vegetation types. This is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions.'

This Seasonal Outlook was developed by AFAC, the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, and Bushfires NT.