AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook for Spring 2021, with varied fire potential for locations across Australia.

The Spring 2021 Outlook presents above normal fire potential for conditions over south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales, driven by grass and crop growth in these areas.

In Western Australia, the above normal fire potential in the north is driven by grass growth and dry soil in the area.

Below normal fire potential is predicted across the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria as a result of vegetation recovering from the 2019–20 bushfire season.

While most of Australia shows normal bushfire potential during the spring outlook period, destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia. Fire potential can vary greatly, even at the smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment considers different land use types and vegetation types. This in turn is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions. The Outlook provides further detail on each state and territory’s fire potential.

AFAC CEO Stuart Ellis AM said the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook is an important tool for fire authorities to prepare their operational response within their own jurisdiction, and beyond state borders.

‘The Outlook provides a national picture of what to expect over the coming months, and the evidence base to make key hazard reduction and strategic operational decisions to reduce bushfire impact on Australian communities,’ he said.

‘Increasingly, fire and emergency services work together to provide assistance across state and territory lines where needed. The Outlook provides our Commissioners and Chief Officers Strategic Committee with the foresight to determine their collective capacity to share resources interstate if required.’

This Outlook was developed by AFAC, the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, and Bushfires NT.

AFAC acknowledges work of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and its predecessor the Bushfire CRC, who produced the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook for 16 years. With the conclusion of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, the Outlook joins a range of successful research outputs that have transitioned and adopted into practice by the end-user community.