The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn 2026 identifies a heightened risk of bushfire in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and Western Australia (WA).

Increased risk of fire in autumn has been identified for regions in southern, central, and eastern NSW, large parts of Victoria, extending to parts of southeast South Australia.

Also at risk are parts of southern WA.

AFAC CEO Rob Webb said: "The increased bushfire risk is driven by increased long term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits."

"For many parts of southern Australia, autumn sees the gradual reduction in fire risk and opportunities for prescribed burning can increase. However, these programs may be delayed in some areas because of the underlying conditions."

"This is a three-month outlook. Even with the anticipated rains in the southeast in the short term, much more would be required to overcome the long-term moisture deficits."

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Areas marked red on the map indicate the likelihood of an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in autumn, compared to an average risk of fire.

Fires can and will still occur in areas across Australia identified as being at average risk

The Outlook is the culmination of a complex analysis by expert fire specialists across Australia, and climate prediction and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology. 

It identifies areas of increased risk of bushfire, in comparison to areas of usual risk of bushfire. It is not intended as a prediction of where and when bushfires will occur.

This Outlook was developed by the Bureau of Meteorology, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Bushfires NT Country Fire Authority, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Victoria, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, NSW Rural Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Tasmania Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and AFAC.