by AFAC

2, March 2023

AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2023.

Australia’s recent climate has been influenced by several climate drivers which favoured wetter than average conditions in many locations. Climate outlooks for autumn suggest a change to drier conditions, with much of the country likely to see below average rainfall and normal to above normal temperatures.

These conditions result in outlooks for drier than average soil moisture in late autumn for the Murray Darling Basin, Tasmania and the western WA, suggesting vegetation growth from high moisture in spring 2022 may be drying out in the first half of 2023, leading to high bushfire fuel loads in some places. 

Elevated fuel loads due to above average grass growth is driving above normal fire potential in central western WA, as well as the southern half of WA where drier climate conditions are expected to persist into autumn. Likewise, areas of NSW are expected to see elevated risk of fast spreading grass fires. Warm conditions are also driving above normal bushfire potential for southern Queensland in early autumn, extending toward the coast later in the season.

Areas across NSW, Victoria and ACT show below normal fire potential due to increased fuel moisture from good rainfall received over spring and summer, and in regions recovering from the 2019-20 fires. However, these areas are accumulating regrowth quickly following favourable growing conditions.

While most of Australia shows normal fire potential during the autumn outlook period, anyone living and working in these areas needs to be vigilant. Destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia.

AFAC Director National Projects and Innovation Dr Simon Heemstra said: ‘We are seeing a shift in the climate drivers influencing Australia, which means our hazard risks are shifting too. While consecutive La Nina events have now passed, we are left with increased vegetation growth in many locations due to sustained rainfall. This is driving increased fuel loads and fire potential as we move into predicted drier conditions.’

‘Australian fire authorities are mindful of these recent and predicted climate conditions and their influence on the flammability of the landscape this season, notably relating to grassfires which can move quickly and can be deadly. As we move out of summer season, we urge communities to be mindful of residual fire risk in their area.’

Fire potential can vary greatly, even at the smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment takes into account different land use types and vegetation types. This is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions.

This Seasonal Outlook was developed by AFAC, the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, and Bushfires NT.