Climate Change and the Fire and
Emergency Services Sector
September 2009
Introduction
AFAC has reviewed the scientific evidence on climate change in relation to the Australian-New Zealand region. Using available evidence, it believes that climate change is occurring and will continue to do so in the future. Such changes may already be affecting the operations and demand for emergency services, but more assuredly are likely to do so into the future.
The threat is based on strong evidence that points to an ongoing increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leading to an overall increase in mean temperature. Specific consequences of this are the likelihood of widespread reductions of water availability across much of this region, increased sea-levels and an increased number and intensity of extreme weather events.
The impact on the fire and emergency services sector will be significant.
Even with the proposed greenhouse-gas emission reduction schemes being developed and concomitant development around the world, scientific modelling shows that enough greenhouse gases have already been emitted to lead to an ongoing increase in mean temperatures through the next few decades.
AFAC accepts that human activities are more than 90% certain to be the main factor contributing to climate change and thus supports the regional, national and international efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and minimise the impact of climate change. It also recognises that some future change is inevitable which will require emergency services to develop adaptive strategies.
The likely aspects of anticipated climate change relevant to fire and emergency services in Australia and New Zealand include:
- Higher mean and extreme temperatures leading to longer fire seasons and more fuel available to burn, and changed demographics of diseases
- Greater frequency and higher average intensity of bushfires particularly in south eastern Australia and northern New Zealand
- Less rainfall and likely higher evaporation in much of the region, placing strain on water resources
- More storms and higher winds leading to vegetation and infrastructure damage
- Increased flooding (extreme precipitation events) through much of the region
- Higher sea levels leading to coastal inundation and estuarine flooding in both nations
- Land use changes affecting resilience and exposure
- Population change and societal disruption locally and internationally
- Higher energy prices and demands for greenhouse-gas emissions reduction.
Emergency services likely to be affected include:
- Bushfire prevention, preparedness and suppression
- Storm damage response and recovery
- Flood management response and recovery
- Coastal inundation management preparedness, response and recovery
- Social services related to temporarily dysfunctional infrastructure and loss of community cohesion
- Personnel management for emergency service workforces with health threats and the exchange and sharing of personnel and equipment nationally and internationally.
The combination of less rainfall and higher temperatures is of particular concern in south eastern Australia and northern New Zealand. More extreme weather events across both nations may also lead to some regions experiencing both flooding and fires, others will become vulnerable for the first time.
Combined with demographics and socioeconomic trends such as ageing populations, work patterns, land-use changes, migration to and from rural areas and changed volunteering levels, the emergency-services sector faces challenging years ahead. These challenges will be experienced in four ways:
- Dealing with extreme events when they occur;
- Changes to core business as average events and community resilience and exposure change;
- Dealing with the uncertainty associated with the forecast changes; and
- Greater demand for across-services, across-region and international sharing of personnel and equipment to deal with the increased demand and the seasonal and spasmodic nature of the threats.
Purpose
This position is to establish an informed national approach to climate change and its impacts on fire and emergency service organisations.
Scope
This position relates to all fire and emergency agencies in Australia and New Zealand including the forest and land management agencies with fire and emergency service obligations.
The uncertainty about the future incident regimes to be experienced by fire and emergency agencies and the community is the main concern of this position.
The impact of climate change on society and the natural environment outside emergency management issues and the impacts of the carbon pollution reduction scheme on society and the economy are outside the scope of this position.
Position
Climate change will affect the emergency services significantly due to an increased scale, intensity and frequency of natural emergency events.
AFAC and its member agencies need to undertake a thorough review of their physical and human resources to prepare for climate change in three ways:
- Review core services to align them with the expected changes to the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events, changes to community expectations and future energy regimes;
- Review peak services required to cover more frequent and extreme events and the possibility of multiple events, and
- Identify the role of the emergency services community in the wider objectives of community adaptation to and mitigation of the climate-change issue.
The exposure of the community to emergency events caused by climate change needs to be carefully managed. AFAC and its member agencies will play an important role in mitigating this exposure by:
- Providing input into the provision of infrastructure designed to mitigate exposure
- Providing input into land use planning and construction requirements that control activities and developments in identified natural hazard areas
- Determining the shared responsibilities between the community and the agencies and providing the community with realistic expectations of service under the new emergency event regimes
- Community education and engagement
- Monitoring trends in population movement and changing demographics.
The exposure of the emergency service organisations to changes caused by climate change will also need to be managed. Strategies required include:
- Maintenance of the safety of the emergency service workforce under increases in average activity levels and during peak events
- Maintenance of service levels in the face of changes to equipment suitability and workforce availability
- Maintenance of evidence-based decision making given the uncertainty that the climate changed future holds
- Building intensified research programs that contribute to an understanding of climate change at a regional level and the integration of climate change into all other research programs.
Supporting Documentation
This position statement has been developed following consultation with key staff in AFAC member agencies and using an evidence-based discussion paper on climate change and the fire and emergency services sector as a guide. For access to the discussion paper, see AFAC Climate Change Discussion Paper (2009).
Glossary
Climate change: Climate change (sometimes also called global warming) as referred to in this document, is the change that is occurring and is anticipated to occur into the future as a result of changing the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, which because of their chemical structures, tend to trap heat radiated from the Earth, making for a warmer Earth
